8 Costco Grocery Items Expected To Skyrocket In Price Soon

Tariff terror is gripping grocery shoppers, and with good reason. Trade war tensions are rising, and so are the prices of basket staples. Costco is one of the leading grocery retailers in the U.S, and even this big box behemoth can't escape the long, heavy arm of President Trump's second-term tariffs.

By now, most Americans know what tariffs are and who really pays for them. However, it hasn't always been clear what Trump's understanding of tariff impact is on U.S. citizens, or if he will actually impose the tariffs he has claimed he will. On a March 2025 earnings call regarding the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, Costco's top brass committed to holding the line on low prices as much as possible, even though a third of its product mix is sourced from countries like Mexico and Canada.

"The tariffs are very fluid right now so it's hard to really give any predictions on what we can do," Gary Millerchip, Costco's Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, said on the call, adding: "But we are prepared, our people are very well-equipped to lower prices and defer any cost increase that come our way. So, we're going to do what we can should that happen." Costco's grocery cost mitigation might mean sourcing products from other countries or thinning already-tight food margins, for a time. Not that doing so will be easy, or possible, to do in a world supply chain strained under tariffs.

One of Costco's earnings call highlights of 2025 (so far) is an increase in meat sales. Per Gary Millerchip's call comments, Costco's fresh food department experienced "double-digit growth" in Q2 2024, led by meat sales. Millerchip also noted that "we continue to see a shift toward lower-cost proteins such as ground beef and poultry." However, tariffs may put beef on the grocery list chopping block.

Costco sells a variety of beef formats and products, including the deeply cheap Costco beef chub. A portion of Costco's beef mix is sourced from Canada, as well as Mexico, two top suppliers of cattle and beef to the U.S. The nature of Canadian cattle imports and U.S. beef product exports to Canada is interwoven to the extreme, to say the least. Tariffs on Canadian and Mexican beef, even if temporarily delayed, are already straining the already-tight North American supply chain.

Prices for beef have been steadily climbing in recent years. U.S. cattle inventory is the lowest it's been since 1951. Canadian farmers shipped $2.4 billion worth of beef (and cattle) to the U.S. in 2024, per Reuters. However, cattle farmers may be less incentivized to pay the high price of raising cattle if its top market won't — or can't — pay for higher-priced end products. Any further decline of cattle herds means higher prices for Canadian beef Costco might sell, as well as higher demand (and prices) for beef Costco sources from anywhere else.

One perk of Costco membership is bringing home the bacon in bulk, and for less money than standard grocery stores when comparing unit prices. That bacon, as well as other Costco pork products, may well be sourced from countries under heavy tariffs.

Per pork industry publication Swineweb, Canada is the "most significant" supplier of pork to the U.S., holding 63% of U.S. market share. Canada exported $1.14 billion in pork to the U.S. in 2024 (per Reuters), as well as piglets, feeder pigs, and slaughter hogs for U.S.-based pork processing. The threat of Trump's tariffs has hogtied the North American pork industry. A fortune in pigs and pork (as well as the supplies used to raise and produce both) are traded throughout North America. Any tariffs on one side of either the northern or southern U.S. border can lead to increased tariffs on the other.

The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs has given Canadian pork farmers pause about how much to invest in their operations. This could decrease the crop, and raise prices at Costco (and everywhere else.) Plus, trade war tensions have already led to impactful retaliatory tariffs from Canada in other sectors. Canada has also suspended imports from Smithfield Foods, the largest pork processing plant in the U.S., quickly illustrating the impact tariffs can have on the job market.

As any green bean fiend or smoothie fan knows, Costco can be a great place to save on frequently-eaten produce. Unfortunately, many of Costco's bulk produce offerings are about to be under heavy tariffs. The price and availability of avocados, tomatoes, berries, and a variety of other fresh and frozen fruit and vegetables will be impacted by tariffs and the tensions that arise from them.

Fruit and vegetables are some primary goods Americans buy from Mexico affected by tariffs. Americans have a healthy appetite for avocados, and most of the 3 billion pounds Americans consume per year are imported. USDA data shows that Mexico is responsible for 90% of U.S. avocado supply. Under tariffs, the price of avocado bags and dips from Mexico will rise faster than you can say "unholy guacamole." While Costco can (and does) some source some avocados from California, production might already be at max capacity due to agricultural and climate-related factors, not to mention real estate costs and availability.

The U.S. is also a top market for berries from Mexico. Mexico's climate and soil make the country one of the world's top berry providers, with the U.S. driving demand for multiple Mexican berry varieties. This mean big, low-cost bags of frozen berries and cartons of fresh berries Costco sells at thin margins are in danger of getting pricier, or at least far more scarce. Mexico is also one of the world's top tomato exporters, with more than half of product heading for the U.S. This means the cost of whole tomatoes sold by Costco could spike, as well as any product sold there that uses Mexican tomatoes as an ingredient.

Big fans of Costco bakery deals and candy varieties already know that plenty of Costco's tastiest treats are made with sugar, spice, and everything nice. Of course, much of that sugar, spice, and even chocolate comes to Costco via Mexico and Canada.

Mexico supplies the U.S. with most of its imported sugar, even though drought has caused decreased supply in recent years. Meanwhile, Canada supplies the U.S. with most of its chocolate, holding 47% of U.S. market share as recently as 2023, per database aggregator TrendEconomy. Canada is also the leading producer of maple syrup in the world. While Costco also sources some of its syrup from New York, Maine, and Vermont, much of Costco's Kirkland Signature maple syrup comes from Canada.

While it's more clear cut to see how tariffs can raise prices on certain "whole" products at Costco, like it's Canadian maple syrup, it's less clear when considering that increased sugar and chocolate prices can affect everything from the chocolate croissants Costco sells, to candy bars, to the sugar used to sweeten packs of coffee creamer.

Happy hour might have just gotten very, very sad. Mexican beer, tequila, and alcohol imported from Canada and China are all under threat due to Donald Trump's tariffs, multifold. Prices on these products under their own brand names or the Kirkland signature label will continue to rise if Costco continues to source from these countries under tariff, but the tariff also stand to affect prices of all alcohol, as well impact the American alcohol industry as a whole.

Almost immediately upon tariffs being imposed by Trump, the trade war was trade warring harder than a Kirkland Signature hard seltzer. Canada pulled American-made booze, including Jack Daniels products, from shelves in an attempt to force Trump to permanently take tariffs off the table, rather than temporarily pause them. The move has further panicked U.S. alcohol producers, and underscores how quickly and mutually destructive tariffs can be.

Costco has great deals on wine, but much of the U.S. wine market depends on Canada's business for exports. If tariffs continue to create blockages in the North American alcohol trade, it could mean far less wine flowing in both countries, and make whatever poison picked by even the most casual drinkers into a very pricey one, indeed.

Coffee prices have been rising almost as much as skyrocketing egg prices for some time, due to decreased crops and increased climate volatility. In addition to those continuing factors affecting the price of coffee for Costco's supply and beyond, even the whisper of tariffs on coffee beans can create pricing panic for suppliers, and ultimately for end customers. Also, tariffs levied on coffee roasting and processing equipment and packaging, often sourced from China, can only make coffee prices more bitter for coffee producers, processors and consumers.

Coffee might be an expense consumers are willing to redo their budgets for, as it is mainstay for modern times. So, too, is Costco cooking oil – which is also set to see some price spikes. Canada is one of the top suppliers of cooking oil to the U.S, and Costco's Kirkland Signature canola oil is made partly from said Canadian supply. While Costco could attempt to source more canola oil from its second-largest supplier, Indonesia, it isn't clear how much of a product demand differential the latter country could actually meet. Canada holds the largest U.S. market share for canola oil supply, and shifting, then straining that supply could get expensive — if not in the short term, certainly in the long term, just like with coffee.

Okay, so cheap Costco gas isn't technically a grocery item. But if you're a Costco member, you know that filling your tank at Costco is usually as cost-effective as filling your fridge there. Of course, tariffs may change all that.

Canada provides the U.S. with much of its gasoline, and Mexico is a supplier as well. While ultimately, energy tariffs will be set at 10% (not 25%, like the blanket tariffs Donald Trump has threatened to impose or has imposed on other foreign imports), paying any more at the pump may feel impossible for everyone, let alone Costco members.

Costco can attempt to source gas from countries that already provide smaller percentages of Costco's current supply, but one wonders...where from? Where can Costco source supply from that isn't strained by other geopolitical tensions, or that doesn't charge exorbitant rates in dire straits to U.S. consumers? As yet, there aren't clear answers to this question. The fatigue consumers feel in regards to rising grocery prices can't be accurately measured — but if Costco gas prices continue to rise, American consumers may get truly fed up with inflation they can't seem to stop.