How Donald Trump's Proposed Tariffs Could Affect Your Medication Prescriptions

Tough tariff talk was a hallmark of President Donald Trump's first presidential term, as well as during the campaign for his second. Trump is highly in favor of tariffs, or import taxes levied against foreign goods. While you may need a quick primer on what tariffs are and who pays for them, chances are, you likely know enough about them by now to be bracing yourself for the ways Trump's proposed tariffs could impact your family's budget in the coming years, especially in regards to prescription medications.   

In Trump's second inaugural address, delivered on January 20, 2025, Trump claimed he would establish the External Revenue Service to collect tariffs. Trump even said, "Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens." While this may initially sound like good news, the reality is more complicated. The U.S. is dependent on other countries for a good deal of its generic drug supply. If those countries (and their pharmaceutical products) face new or higher tariffs any time soon, Americans could feel like they themselves are, too.

If imposed, tariffs on pharmaceuticals that are imported from top U.S. trading partners like China, Mexico, and Canada could affect the price points and availability of medications. As if that wasn't a big enough tariff-induced headache to face, the problems that retaliatory tariffs can cause may leave many Americans reaching for significantly more expensive headache medications in the near future.

While Trump has previously spoken out against U.S. reliance on foreign trade partners when it comes to pharmaceutical needs, the U.S. ultimately relies on foreign drug production for affordable medications and pharmaceutical needs. China and India are the top suppliers of U.S. pharmaceutical imports, with fellow tariff targets, Mexico and Canada, also high on the list. According to industry data compiled by the bipartisan Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA), in 2021 the U.S. imported 23.6% of its pharmaceutical goods from China, an exponentially higher amount than imports from 20 years ago.

Generic medications are a major driver of all imported pharmaceutical goods. According to a 2022 FDA report, 91% of medical prescriptions are for generic medications, which are often priced at fractions of the cost of name-brand, profit-driven prescriptions. Per CPA data, China was the leading provider of U.S. pharmaceutical goods by weight, one of the top suppliers of U.S. generic medications, and one of the top filers of new active pharmaceutical ingredients, or APIs.

Part of Trump's love of tariffs comes from a stated desire to rebuild manufacturing of all kinds in the U.S., rather than becoming increasingly reliant on supplies from foreign countries. However, while more manufacturing jobs might be welcome in the U.S., manufacturing generic and brand-name pharmaceuticals on U.S. soil could cost far more than the affordable, foreign-produced medications that currently dominate the import market, with most Americans unwilling — or unable — to pay increased prices.

Trump has floated tariff threats anywhere from 10% to 25% to even 100% against top U.S. trade partners. All to say, the severity of Trump's proposed tariffs remains uncertain, if uneasy. Even simply preparing for a 10% blanket tariff on pharmaceutical goods from China could impact Americans that are dependent on inexpensive generic medications, which are largely manufactured outside of the U.S.

While immense profit markups sustain brand-name pharmaceuticals, generic drug manufacturers operate on razor-thin profit margins. Squeezing those already-tight margins with even the slightest tariff increase could make generic drug supply chains falter. Any break in the chain, especially if that chain originates overseas, means U.S. consumers could pay through more money and/or decreased choice. Politically, tariff threats on trade partners could be a heavy-hitting drug, but just how likely Trump is to dose U.S. citizens with such a tough pill to swallow remains to be seen. Trump's tariffs could be more early-term posturing than a realistic decimation of U.S. dependence on inexpensive medications.

For at least a decade, a lack of domestic investment in U.S. based drug manufacturing has contributed to the country's reliance on foreign-produced active pharmaceutical ingredients. A tariff-based political heel-turn to ignore this dependence won't instantly create manufacturing infrastructure for said APIs in the U.S., nor will it keep costs low. However, the talk of tariffs could shift the U.S. pharmaceutical industry into some sort of balance in the long term, even if average U.S. citizens must contend with changing prices and drug shortages in the short term.