No More Sticker Shock: The Cost Of Thanksgiving Turkey Has Changed In 2024

It should come as a surprise to no one that Thanksgiving dinner this year will be more expensive than pre-pandemic prices. In fact, you might be gearing up for or even dreading your grocery bill (especially if you think about how much more expensive Thanksgiving dinner was in 2023). However, if you're worried about sticker shock this holiday, you might be surprised to learn that, according to data from the American Farm Bureau Federation, your Thanksgiving costs in 2024 will actually be 5% less than they were last year.

While the spread of the H5N1 avian flu has led to a decline in turkey production, a decline in demand for turkey has actually offset this. This means turkey prices are expected to be about 6% lower than last year. Given that the turkey generally makes up about 43% of a family's total Thanksgiving meal price, that 6% decline can be significant. Also contributing to the lower Thanksgiving grocery bill? Milk. There has been a 14% decrease in the price of a gallon of whole milk when compared to 2023. Similarly, fresh vegetables have been experiencing less price volatility than they had been in the last several years, further contributing to a cheaper Thanksgiving.

However, while some important staples have declined in price this year, it's not an across-the-board guarantee of cheaper prices. In fact, some important Thanksgiving items have gone up in price, which has kept the price decline to a modest 5%. Let's dive into what items will cost you more this year.

Thanks to inflation, you can expect to spend about 42% more on your Thanksgiving groceries this year than you did in 2019, according to Datasembly. Plus, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated that U.S. grocery prices would rise 1.2% in 2024. So, it's worth noting that not every element of your Thanksgiving meal is cheaper than it was last year. In fact, the American Farm Bureau Federation found that prepackaged items are where consumers can expect to get the hardest with price increases.

Both dinner rolls and cubed stuffing increased over 8% compared to 2023 prices. Similarly, for those who forgo the canned cranberry in favor of the real thing, fresh cranberries increased by 12% in price this year. However, even with this increase, current prices mark the lowest price for fresh cranberries (when adjusted for inflation) since 1987 due to an unusually volatile price plummet in 2023.

Another ingredient that could come with some sticker shock this Thanksgiving is eggs. While, on the surface, eggs might not necessarily seem like a significant part of a Thanksgiving meal (although pie lovers might think otherwise), they can be a staple in many kitchens and an integral part of many different recipes. In case you haven't already noticed, egg prices are skyrocketing again across the country. The current jump in price is largely due to the spread of the H5N1 avian flu, which has affected millions of poultry so far.

While having a 5% decline in overall prices is nothing to balk at, it is worth mentioning that this decrease does not undo or offset the massive increases consumers have experienced post-pandemic. More specifically, the hike in food prices that occurred in 2022. The American Farm Bureau calculates that a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 in 2022 hit its peak high cost at $64.05 (for comparison they estimate that dinner for the same amount in 2024 will cost $58.08). However, pre-pandemic, the cost for the same meal for 10 people didn't even break $50. So while the 5% reduction this year is definitely a relief, prices are still up almost 20% compared to Thanksgiving 2019.

This can leave more families having to think carefully about how to budget for their Thanksgiving meals this year. Plus, calculating the price of your family's Thanksgiving meal could be even more difficult depending on where, exactly, you live in the country. For instance, those living in Western states (including California, Nevada, Washington, and even Alaska) can expect to pay at least 14% more than the rest of the country for the same amount of Thanksgiving food. Those living in the South (including Texas and Florida), on the other hand, can expect to pay the least with a Thanksgiving cost for 10 people totaling almost $10 less than the West. It's also worth mentioning that while food prices might be modestly lower, other integral elements of a Thanksgiving meal, including housing and utilities, are still on the rise.